Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts with the label correlations

ILLUSORY CORRELATION: MISGUIDED THINKING

Human beings have been blaming strange behaviour on the full moon for centuries. In the Middle Ages, for example, people claimed that a full moon could turn humans into werewolves. In the 1700s, it was common to believe that a full moon could cause epilepsy or feverish temperatures. We even changed our language to match our beliefs. The word lunatic comes from the Latin root word ‘luna’, which means moon. Today, we have (mostly) come to our sanities. While we no longer blame sickness and disease on the phases of the moon, we will hear people use it as a casual explanation for outlandish behaviour . For example, a common story in medical circles is that during a chaotic evening at the hospital one of the nurses will often say, “Must be a full moon tonight.” There is little evidence that a full moon actually impacts our behaviours. A complete analysis of more than 30 peer-reviewed studies found no correlation between a full moon and hospital admissions, lottery ticket pay-outs, suicid